Most backtests are lies.
Run the gauntlet.
Every other tool is built to tell you your edge is real. EdgeProven runs the deterministic de-bias suite quants run before they trust a number — variant-deflation, regime split, tail & single-name dependence, real-cost re-pricing. Same trades in, same verdict out.
paste date,ticker,return — or run our sample
For educational analysis of hypothetical, past performance only. Not investment advice. Past performance, whether actual or hypothetical, does not indicate future results. This is an impersonal tool applying identical logic to every input, not personalized advice.
The falsification wall
We couldn’t fool our own validator. Now try to fool it with yours.
Six edges we built, hoped would work, and killed when they failed the gauntlet. No competitor publishes their own failures — which is exactly why this is the one proof a five-user startup can’t fake.
- ✗ killedPairs reversion
→ hooked us Clean mean-reversion, in-sample.
! cause of death No robust out-of-sample edge across two independent rounds. Stopped a losing auto-trader before it cost us.
- ✗ killedThe scanner zoo
→ hooked us Survivor-inflated win rates across ~30 scanners.
! cause of death 15-year anti-survivor gauntlet: only one thin scanner is all-weather; two were outright negative.
- ✗ killed13F overlay
→ hooked us Looked like +4%/qtr buy-minus-sell.
! cause of death An event-bucket artifact — double-counted buckets plus one GME tail. No tradeable portfolio survived de-tailing — kept only as a genuine decorrelated diversifier, never as standalone alpha.
- ✗ killedPEAD (earnings drift)
→ hooked us Top-magnitude names, t = 2.71.
! cause of death 76% of the edge was three names (TSLA / AMD / FCX). Ex-top-3, it’s a coin flip.
- ✗ killedInsider clusters (Form 4)
→ hooked us +5.4%/yr, t = 0.96.
! cause of death Dead out-of-sample; negative in the bear; 95% of it was three tickers.
- ✗ killedFundamental quality/value
→ hooked us In-sample t = 2.29.
! cause of death Premium decay — dead out-of-sample (t = 0.51); the long/short leg was negative.
This is the method working. Most edges should die. The rare one that survives — like our put-write research — earns the green light precisely because the other six didn’t.
Run the gauntlet — freeEvery other tool in this category is engineered to confirm your edge. We engineered the opposite — and then proved we meant it by killing six of our own.
- No signals to sell
- No return promises
- No “this will make money”
- No automated real-money trading — paper-only, in the code
- You can’t buy a better verdict
How the gauntlet works
Four honest checks, run the same way every time.
Deterministic and reproducible — every check shows its work. Hit “Show the math” on any of them in the validator.
- Deflated Sharpe
We discount your Sharpe for every variant you tried.
Naive backtests report the best run of many and call it skill — that’s luck wearing a suit.
- Regime stratification
We split your record into bull and bear.
A single backtest blends a 2020 melt-up with a 2022 drawdown and hides that you only work in one.
- Tail & single-name dependence
We check whether a few names or days carry the whole result.
An average return looks systematic right up until you learn 71% of it was three tickers.
- Cost sensitivity
We re-price with realistic round-trip costs.
Plenty of edges are real on paper and gone after the spread.
“Survives these checks” is as high as it goes. If you ever see us print “validated” or “profitable,” we broke our own rule — tell us.
From verdict to proof
Free gives you the verdict. Paid gives you the receipt.
A signed, tamper-evident, shareable report — a permanent link you can hand to an allocator, a partner, or future-you, with an embeddable badge they can verify hasn’t been altered. You’re paying for the permanent record and the signature, never a better grade. The verdict is identical whether you pay or not.
The rest of the bench
Design a strategy, get an AI second opinion, paper-trade it — and everything still runs the same honest checks.
A senior trader to sanity-check every order — never to tell you to buy.
Submit a proposed entry, stop, and target. Claude returns a thesis-check, a risk-factor breakdown, and a concrete list of what would invalidate the setup. Analytical, never directive.
- Bull / bear / risk decomposition with severity tags
- Streams output token-by-token — no spinner-fest
- Analytical language by design — never “buy this”
Pullback to rising 21-EMA on declining volume. R:R 2.0, in line with regime defaults.
Earnings in 4 trading days. AI suggests halving size or moving stop to $458.50.
If SPX breaks 4400, semis tend to decouple to the downside on the day. Watch /ES at 09:30.
- Swing Signals — multi-day setups, each shown with its realized record
- Scanners — intraday setups across ~450 liquid names
- Fast-Tick — sub-minute momentum, mean-reversion, stat-arb pairs
- Movers — today's gainers, losers and volatility leaders
- Watchlist — your symbols, unioned into every scanner
- Email Digest — 07:30 and 16:30 ET on market days
How we treat your account
Boring by design where it counts.
Real-money automation only behind three switches
Paper is the default. The schedulers, the Book's auto-roll and the paper Auto-Trader run on your PAPER credentials and cannot reach a live account. One feature can place real-money orders on its own — the live Auto-Trader — and only on an account where the operator has enabled it, after the account owner arms it by typing a confirmation, and once its shadow mode (which places nothing) is switched off. It runs under per-order and per-day caps with loss breakers that disarm it automatically. Manual live trading is off by default, and you trigger every placement yourself.
Your keys, encrypted at rest
Alpaca API credentials are stored under AES-256-GCM with a master key kept in our deployment secret store. You can rotate or clear them from Settings any time.
Per-user data scoping
Every protected route resolves to your user and every database read is auto-filtered to your rows. You see only your strategies, your decisions, your trades.
Informational only
EdgeProven is not a broker, not a financial advisor, and nothing on this site is investment advice. AI critiques use analytical language by design.
The math is not ours — it’s the literature’s
- Deflated SharpeBailey & López de Prado (2014)
- Multiple-testing deflationthe same DSR, at the trial count you declare
- Regime stratificationsplit on trend, each regime tested separately
- Real-cost re-pricinga blended per-round-trip cost haircut
FAQ
The questions an honest tool should expect.
Is this just talking your book?
No. We don't sell signals and we don't trade against you — we take no position opposite yours and earn nothing from your order flow. The validator is deterministic: same trades in, same verdict out. You can't pay us for a better grade, and we publish the six of our own signals we killed.
Is this real trading? Is it advice?
Paper by default, and never advice. Automation runs on your paper keys, with one opt-in exception: the live Auto-Trader can place real-money orders on its own, but only where the operator has enabled it, you have armed it by typing a confirmation, and you have switched its shadow mode off — capped, with loss breakers that disarm it. Manual real-money trading is off unless the operator enables your account, and you trigger every placement: single manual entries are buy-limit only and capped per order and per day, while the separate live Premia Book places a basket sized from your equity that includes market orders and a defined-risk short put spread. EdgeProven is an impersonal research tool and publisher, never an adviser: the AI is analytical — thesis, risk, counter — never “buy this.”
What does it cost, and what do paid plans add?
The validator is free, no signup. A free account adds saved verdicts, paper trading, and the rule-based order check. Pro ($29/mo) adds unlimited Edge Lab validation and the AI second opinion; Premium ($79/mo) adds the Premia Book and the research suite. The signed, shareable report is a separate per-run purchase (Validation-as-a-Service), not a subscription perk — you pay for the artifact, never a better grade. The free tier keeps working regardless.
Bring a backtest you believe in. Let’s try to break it.
Free, no signup, no card. Paste your trades and get an honest verdict in seconds — then create a free account to save it and validate the rest of your strategies.
By signing up you agree that this tool is informational and not investment advice.
What actually survived
Killed-edge autopsies, honest backtests, and the setups that cleared the 15-year gauntlet — occasional, no hype.
Honest edge validation and paper trading with AI-assisted analysis. Most backtests are lies — we test yours like it's our money. Not a broker. Not personalized investment advice.
Important. EdgeProven is an informational research and paper-trading tool. Nothing on this site is investment advice, an offer to buy or sell securities, or a recommendation tailored to your situation. Trading involves risk; past performance is not predictive of future results. Backtests use historical data and may not reflect live execution conditions. AI-generated analyses are probabilistic and may be wrong.
© 2026 EdgeProven · Paper trading only.